Redesdale (NY)  




Anne Peters
P.O. Box 3926
Midway, KY 40347
(859) 846 - 9794


The Thoroughbred business is tough but the rewards can be heady. It's important to surround yourself with experts that will give honest advice to keep you from making stupid mistakes.

Don't confuse pedigree expertise with nick ratings. A good advisor knows that pedigree and conformation are inextricably linked. A good advisor considers your goals, your budget, and your preferences, and will work within your parameters or recommend when they need to be realistically revised. A good advisor of any kind is honest and objective.

It's important to realize that breeding Thoroughbreds is an exercise in genetics - knowledge of the gene pool and how the traits are passed on. We are breeding racehorses, which means we are breeding for performance. Inspecting the best runners and sires will quickly show you that perfect conformation is not a requirement for excellence. With all the factors that need to be weighed and balanced, Thoroughbred breeding is as much an art as a science; an intellectual exercise at its best and a crap shoot at its worst.  

June 14, 2024: Do Milers Make the Best Sires?
March 15, 2024: Freshman Sires of 2024
Tiz the Law, McKinzie, Improbable, Complexity, and Instagrand.
January 24, 2024 Honest Pleasure is Everywhere
March 30, 2023 Who Became the Best Broodmare Sires?
February 14, 2023 Freshman Sires of 2023
December 23, 2022: Karakontie (JPN)
May 22,2022: Gun Runner Sire Phenom
February 1, 2022: The Freshman Sires of 2022
February 12, 2021: The Freshman Sires of 2021
March 28, 2020 : The Freshman Sires of 2020
April 2019: Kentucky Derby pedigrees/stamina figures
March 2019: 2019 Freshman Sires
June 2018: Justify's pedigree
May 2018: Sagamore Farm cemetery
March 2018: Kentucky Derby stamina
January 2018: Freshman Sire Picks for 2018
March 11, 2017: Freshman Sire Picks for 2017
Sep 19, 2016: X Factor
Pedigree Feb 25, 2016: Joe Estes
Blood-Horse Jan 16, 2016: Colonel John
Blood-Horse Dec 12, 2015: Inbreeding to Deputy Minister
Click here for more

So, on to 2023! I've finished my selections for Leading Freshman Sire for this year. I'm going with..... (click here to read my article)
Freshman Sires of 2022 (February 14, 2023)
I didn't do too badly with my predictions for the leading freshman sires of 2022. Although my #1 pick, Mendelssohn didn't come out as #1, he was #4 by number of winners (25), #7 by earnings and got two stakes winners. He looks to be more of a turf sire at this point. That said, my next two choices, Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic were right there at the top. Bolt d'Oro was #1 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and tied for second by # of winners (29). Good Magic was #2 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and sixth by # of winners (21). I also picked the crowd favorite Justify, to cover myself in case he did well, which he did, being #3 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and tied for second with Bolt d'Oro by number of winners (29).
I've finished my evaluation of the freshman sire class of 2022, those with their first two-year-olds racing this year. You can read it here. (January 29, 2022)
*** Oops! I forgot West Coast on my first posting so I've updated to include him (February 1, 2022)
I've finished my evaluation of the first crop sires represented by their first two-year-olds of 2021. This is a group that includes stars like Arrogate, Gun Runner and Classic Empire. You can read it here. (February 12, 2021)
This wonderful video has resurfaced on and I recommend everyone watch it before it disappears again. I read so much about the feisty, temperamental Nasrullah, and to see him captured rearing and tearing across his new paddock in a short color home movie really colors in the legend he became. WATCH IT!!

This one is a link to the 1938 movie "Kentucky" also on It's retelling the great racing story "The Look of Eagles". If you plow past the unpleasant first several minutes of the movie about the Civil War, you are in for a treat. Or just jump ahead to 13:26 and you will see a color sequence featuring living and breathing Gallant Fox, Omaha, Hard Tack, Chance Play and of course, Man o'War.

KENTUCKY PRIDE. Something interesting popped up on my Facebook page yesterday. It was a link to an old silent movie called Kentucky Pride. I'm not a fan of the silent movie genre but this one caught my eye because it featured cameos of the stallions Negofol, Morvich, Fair Play, Man o'War and The Finn. The story is pretty lame, but Negofol was particularly magnificent. Enjoy. (August 12, 2022)
Useful or interesting links
American Classic Pedigrees (Avalyn Hunter)
The Blood-Horse
The Blood-Horse Stallion Register
Thoroughbred Daily News
Racing Post/Bloodstock News
Tony Morris's 100 Shapers of the Breed (@ Thoroughbred Racing Commentary) 5x pedigrees and race records
Sport Horse Data (great photo resource)
Prominent Sirelines Circular Chart
Bloodlines of Thoroughbred Champions - sire line chart by Rodney P Jones
The Tony Leonard Collection (iconic photos)
(I highly recommend the Stallions poster)
Rommy Faversham's website with articles
The Vault - Blog about Horse Racing past and present
Do Milers Make the Best Sires? Is this a fact or just good copy for a stallion advertisement? Read the article here. (June 14, 2024)
2024 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 7/19/2024earnings $
Complexity (KY)$704,318
Vekoma (KY $546,771
Thousand Words (KY) $499,879
Tiz the Law (KY)$250,878
War of Will (KY)$247,480
2024 Freshman Leaders by stakes winners
#stakes winners
Complexity (KY)2 - Mensa,
     Mo Plex
Thousand Words (KY)2 - The Queens M G
      Vodka With a Twist
Aurelius Maximus (LA)1 - Secret Faith
Caracaro (KY)1 - West Memorial
2024 Freshman Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # sws
Complexity (KY) 12 / 2
Vekoma (KY)11
Thousand Words (KY)6 / 2
Global Campaign (KY)5
Instagrand (KY)4
Phantom Boss (CA)4
Win Win Win (FL)4
Echo Town (KY)3
Instilled Regard (KY)3
Honor A. P. (KY)3
Tiz the Law (KY)3
War of Will (KY)3
Authentic (KY) 2
Bodexpress (FL)2
Caracaro (KY) 2 / 1
Gift Box (KY)2
Improbable (KY/died)2
Maximum Security (KY)2
Shancelot (KY)2
Spun to Run (KY)2
Starship (OK) 2
Tom's d'Etat (KY)2
Volatile (KY) 2
Aurelius Maximus (LA) 1 / 1
Bobby's Wicked One (LA)1
Calculator (IN) 1
Game Winner (KY)1
Higher Power (KY)1
King For a Day (NY)1
Lone Sailor (LA) 1
McKinzie (KY)1
Name Changer (NY)1
Promises Fulfilled (KY) 1
Qafeef (IN)1
Rowayton (KY)1
The Freshman Sire race for 2024 has begun! You've got to love the juvenile races at Spring Meet at Keeneland. The first winner for a freshman sire in Noth America was The Queens M G (by Thousand Words), at Keeneland on April 7. The second was Perfect Shances (by Shancelot) at Keeneland on April 11. The third was Mensa (by Complexity) at Keeneland on April 12. (April 19, 2024)
Freshman Sire Predictions for 2024 (March 15, 2024)
I'm a little late with my analysis and predictions this year but at long last, here they are. It was hard to pick just a few for my choices because there were a lot of good prospects in this year's Freshman Sire crop, a lot of good 2-year-olds and speed horses, but I've made my choices and will keep my fingers crossed. Read the article here.
Honest Pleasure is Everywhere! (January 24, 2024)
How did this not-so-great sire become such an important player in Thoroughbred pedigrees today? Without him there would be no Equinox (JPN), no Flightline, no Justify, no Tapit, no Into Mischief. Read the story here.
Leading Freshman Sires of 2023 versus my predictions (Jan 13, 2024)
     It's official. Spendthrift Farm's Mitole was the 2023 Champion Freshman Sire based on earnings (see below). He was among the predictions I made in this class last February so hooray for me. I had also picked Maximus Mischief (2nd) and Omaha Beach (4th) but let's face it, the juggernaut group of stallions that Spendthrift presented in 2020 was hard to top quality-wise. Another choice of mine was Audible, who did OK but not among the top 5. Another choice, Catholic Boy, got 13 winners but no stakes winners.
     The one stallion choice I'm particularly proud of, however, was Flameaway, who was 5th by earnings but #1 by # of stakes winners with 4. He's already got a fifth stakes winner early in 2024 in Ma Yetal, in the UAE and hopefully there will be more for this nice young stallion who has graduated from an initial stud fee of $7,500 to a 2024 fee of $25,000.
2023 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 12/31/23earnings $
Mitole (KY)$2,624,858
Maximus Mischief (KY)$2,266,229
Vino Rosso (KY)$2,193,544
Omaha Beach (KY)$2,129,783
Flameaway (KY)$1,782,411
2023 Freshman Leaders by stakes winners
#stakes wnrs
Flameaway (KY)4 - Dreamfyre-G3
     Freedom Principle
     Juliias Dream
     She's Fire
Maximus Mischief (KY) 3 - Carmelina
      Let Them Watch
Omaha Beach (KY)3 - Hot Beach
      Omaha Girl
      Sandy Bottom
Solomini (NY)3 - My Shea D Lady
Audible (KY) 2 - Chi Chi
      My Mane Squeeze
Coal Front (KY)2 - Good and Stout
      Xtreme Diva
Mitole (KY)2 - Ice Cold
     V V's Dream-G3
Vino Rosso (KY)2 - Cap Classique
      The Wine Steward
Believe In Royalty (PR)2 - Belleza Celestial
Copper Bullet (KY) 1 - Copper Tax
Divisidero (KY)1 - Vote No
Enticed (KY)1 - Shimmering Allure
Leofric (KY)1 - Canigetaloan
Pavel (CA) 1 - Madison Rae
Qurbaan (KY to IN)1 - Charlene's Dream
Redirect (WV)1 - Direct the Cat
St Patrick's Day (FL)1 - Miss Miezie
World of Trouble (KY)1 - Touch of Trouble
2023 Freshman Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # sws
Mitole (KY)35 / 2
Maximus Mischief (KY) 30 / 3
Omaha Beach (KY)24 / 3
Vino Rosso (KY)24 / 2
Enticed (KY) 23 / 1
Flameaway (KY) 21 / 4
Audible (KY) 21 / 2
World of Trouble (KY)16 / 1
Solomini (NY) 14 / 3
Catholic Boy (KY)13
Preservationist (KY) 13
Catalina Cruiser (KY)12
Demarchelier (GB) (KY) 11
Coal Front (KY)10 / 2
Yoshida (KY) 10
Believe in Royalty (PR) 8 / 2
St. Patrick's Day (FL) 8 / 1
Copper Bullet (KY)7 / 1
Leofric (KY)5 / 1
Pavel (CA) 5 / 1
Divisidero (KY) 4 / 1
Heart to Heart (KY)4
Sporting Chance (NM)3
Force The Pass (MD)2
One Sided (OH)2
Rise Up (OR)2
Shagaf (IN)2
Tough It Up (OH)2
Charming Kitten (IN)1
Dynamic Racer (OH)1
Greyvitos (CA) 1
Lost Treasure (IRE) (KY)1
Om (CA)1
Pass the Buck (OK)1
Princeps Senatus (ONT)1
Qurbaan (IN)1 / 1
Redirect (WV) 1 / 1
Rogueish (FL) 1
Rumpus Cat (CA)1
Snag (OH) 1
Vino Rosso is the first freshman sire with a stakes winner in 2023. (July 3, 2023) The Bashford Manor Stakes, usually run at Churchill Downs but this year run at Ellis Park, is one of the earliest stakes run for two-year-olds. This year it was won by The Wine Steward, the first stakes winner for sire Vino Rosso and the first stakes winner for any North American freshman sire in 2023. The Wine Steward's pedigree is pretty complex. Sire Vino Rosso is inbred 3x4 to both Mr. Prospector and Deputy Minister. Both patterns are common in the best runners by his sire Curlin, but usually one or the other duplication, rarely together. The Wine Steward's dam, Call to Service, by To Honor and Serve (by Bernardini, by A.P. Indy), and so representes an extended version of Curlin's top nick with A.P. Indy mares. Call to Service also adds a third cross of Deputy Minister (who is 4x5x4 in The Wine Steward) and she also has 4 more crosses of Mr. Prospector (6 strains total in The Wine Steward 4x5x7x6x6x6). This wouldn't have been a mating that I would have recommeded due to all the inbreeding but hey, it worked well, so kudos to the breeders Sequel Thorougbhreds, Lakland Farm and Mark Toothaker.
Omaha Beach is the first leader in freshman sire race for 2023 (May 11, 2023) When Vin Laur Racing's first-time two-year-old starter Cynane came home in front in Race 1 at Belmont Park on May 11, she became the first winner for her sire Omaha Beach. She's also the first winner for any of this year's North American freshman sires. The race was over five furlongs on the turf course, which is surprising since Omaha Beach himself much preferred dirt on grass. His first four starts were on turf but he didn't break his maiden until his fifth start, when switched to the main track in his second start as a three-year-old. Cynane's dam, Burning Arch, by Arch, was herself a two-time winner on grass at three.
Who Became the Best Broodmare Sires?
(March 31, 2023)

I thought I'd look at stallions by comparing the top sires of stakes winners from each sire crop compared to those that became the best broodmare sires, starting from the same point in time. You'd be surprised how they compare. I started with those stallions who went to stud in 2013 because they're the first with any sort of numbers as broodmare sires. It's still early days for these young broodmare sires but watching their records develop is part of the education. Read more here.
Freshman Sires of 2022 and 2023. (February 14, 2023)
I didn't do too badly with my predictions for the leading freshman sires of 2022. Although my #1 pick, Mendelssohn didn't come out as #1, he was #4 by number of winners (25), #7 by earnings and got two stakes winners. He looks to be more of a turf sire at this point. That said, my next two choices, Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic were right there at the top. Bolt d'Oro was #1 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and tied for second by # of winners (29). Good Magic was #2 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and sixth by # of winners (21). I also picked the crowd favorite Justify, to cover myself in case he did well, which he did, being #3 by earnings, tied for #1 by number of stakes winners (6) and tied for second with Bolt d'Oro by number of winners (29).
    So, on to 2023! I've finished my selections for Leading Freshman Sire for this year. I'm going with.....(click here to read my article)
Karakontie (JPN): looking for a good turf sire?
I've had my eye on Karakontie (JPN) ever since he went to stud at Gainesway Farm in 2016, so to see him rising in reputation as a good American-based turf sire makes me happy. With the recent losses of Kitten's Joy and English Channel, we certainly need one. A proven sire standing for just $10,000 looks like a bargain if you want to breed a good grass runner. Read the rest of this article by clicking here.
2022 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 12/31/22earnings $
Bolt d'Oro (KY)$2,748,980
Good Magic (KY)$2,533,214
Justify (KY) $2,349,984
Army Mule (KY)$2,049,560
Girvin (KY)$1,910,156
2022 Freshman Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
#black type wnrs
Bolt d'Oro (KY)6 - Boppy O-G3T
     Corona Bolt
     Instant Coffee -G2
     It's Bobs Business
     Major Dude-G2T
     Monsieur Coco
Good Magic (KY)6 - Bat Flip
     Blazing Sevens-G1
     Curly Jack-G3
     How Did He Do That
     Vegas Magic -G2
Justify (KY)6 - Aspen Grove-G3
     Champions Dream-G3
     Statuette - G2
     Just Cindy-G3
     Justa Warrior
Army Mule (KY)5 - Broadway Girls
     Danse Macabre
     Hot Little Thing
     Navy Goat
Girvin (FL)5 - Atomically
     Damon's Mound-G2
     Devious Dame
     Dorth Vader
City of Light (KY)3 - Chop Chop
      Lights of Broadway
Sharp Azteca (KY)3 - Alma Rosa
     Sharp Aza Tack
     Tyler's Tribe
Mendelssohn (KY)2 - Delight-G1
     Classical Cat
Counterforce (BC) 2 - Airforce
Mo Town (KY)2 - Key of Life
     Mazing Mark
Oscar Performance (KY)2 - Andthewinneris
     Red Carpet Ready
West Coast (KY)2 - Sally's Sassy
     Marz Express
Accelerate (KY) 1 - Hal
Always Dreaming (KY)1 - Grand Isle
Awesome Slew (FL)1 - Awesome Strong
Batallion Runner (FL)1 - Lightnin Runner
Bee Jersey (KY)1 - My Happiness
Collected (KY) 1 - Freedom Trail
Forever d'Oro (IN)1 - Good Forever
Free Drop Billy (KY)1 - Free Drop Maddy
Gold Rush Dancer (WA)1 - Annette Marie
Good Samaritan (KY)1 - Good Sam
Hoppertunity (PA) 1 - Midnight Parade
Mor Spirit (KY)1 - Velocitor
Prospect Park (CA)1 - Quickly Park It
The Lieutenant (NY; died)1 - Vacation Dance
2022 Freshman Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Sharp Azteca (KY)34 / 3
Bolt d'Oro (KY)29 / 6
Justify (KY) 29 / 6
Mendelssohn (KY) 25 / 2
Army Mule (KY)24 / 5
Good Magic (KY)21 / 6
Girvin (FL) 20 / 5
Mo Town (KY)19 / 2
Mor Spirit (KY)17 / 1
Oscar Performance (KY)17 / 2
Cloud Computing (KY)16
Good Samaritan (KY)16 / 1
Accelerate (KY) 14 / 1
Awesome Slew (FL) 14 / 1
Bucchero (FL) 14
Collected (KY)14 / 1
Always Dreaming (KY)12 / 1
Tapwrit (KY) 12
West Coast (KY)12 / 2
City of Light (KY)11 / 3
Free Drop Billy (KY)8 / 1
Hoppertunity (MD) 8 / 1
Ransom The Moon (KY) 8
McCraken (KY)7
Redesdale (NY) 7
Smokem (CA)6
Bee Jersey (KY)6 / 1
National Flag (OH)5
Conquest Farenheit (CA)4
Counterforce (BC) 4 / 2
Funtastic (KY)4
Gold Rush Dancer (WA)4 / 1
Irish War Cry (MD)4
Prospect Park (CA?)4 / 1
Ralis (BC) 4
Battalion Runner (FL)3 / 1
Eastwood (PA)3
Far From Over (died)3
Seattle Serenade (ONT)3
The Lieutenant (NY; died 2019)3 / 1
Tunwoo (FL)3
Aldrin (WV) 2
Mrazek (CA; died 2021)2
Sea Wizard (NJ)2
Amis Gizmo (ONT)1
Coastline (CA) 1
Danish Dynaformer (ONT)1
Forever d'Oro (IN)1/ 1
Long On Value (FL)1
Long River (MD)1
Neck 'n Neck (died 2019, IN)1
No Never No More (FL)1
Point Piper (CA)1
Rivers Run Deep (OH) 1
The Stud Fees are Coming! The Stud Fees are Coming! (Oct 20, 2022) This is one of my favorite times of the year, when Kentucky farms start announcing the 2023 stud fees. I try to keep my pages (see right) Kentucky Stud Fees and New Stallions and Roster Changes updated daily as the press releases come out because watching the stallions' fees go up or down is a serious education. As of right now (October 20), Into Mischief remains on top at $250,000 with Curlin moving up to be not far behind at $225,000. Not This Time is to stand for $130,000. Last year he was first announced at $40,000 but quickly jumped to $100,00 for 2022 and his popularity hasn't dimmed. Constitution is now $110,000 from $85,000. Violence has jumped back up to $40,000 (from $25,000 in 2022). Bolt d'Oro was $20,000; now he's $35,000 with a strong showing from his first juvenile runners.. Good old reliable Midshipman doubles from $10,000 in 2022 to $20,000.
     They haven't announced a fee for Gun Runner ($125,000 in 2022) or Sharp Azteca ($5,000 in 2022) yet but both will undoubtedly increase dramatically.
     Some interesting new top-of-the-line stallions include Flightline (probably in the $100,000 and up range), Life Is Good ($100,000 for now, pre-Breeder's Cup) and Jackie's Warrior ($50,000). The first sons of Gun Runner will enter stud in 2023 and include Cyberknife (Spendthrift) and Early Voting (Ashford), possibly also Gunite and Taiba although there have been no announcements about the last two noted. There will be at least three new sons of Into Mischief available, led by Life Is Good and including Mandaloun and Mutsabeeq.
     As the foal crop continues to decline, the Kentucky stallion population doesn't appear to be following suit. I'm not sure that's a good thing, but as long as breeders clamor over first year sires, there will be no stopping it.
2022 Kentucky Broodmare Sales/Broodmare Sires (October 7, 2022)
I've completed updating my broodmare sires list (farther down the page in the right column) for the 2022 Kentucky broodmare sales this November. I've arbitrarily cut off stallions foaled before 1995 because I like to keep the stallions listed pertinent to the modern population. You can still find mares by very successful broodmare sires like Danzig and Storm Cat, but they're older mares. I think it's important to point out younger stallions whose daughters are doing well and will continue to do well into the future.
     I've included the stallion's year of birth and added the year they went to stud so you can compare how stallions from the same sire crops are doing. I made another arbitrary decision to highlight stallions who entered stud in 2005 or later as the young "up-and-comers". This highlights the 2005 sire class, led by top broodmare sires Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro, Speightstown and Candy Ride. Bernardini (class of 2007) is right up there with the best, as are Ghostzapper (2006), Hard Spun (2008) and Kitten's Joy (2006). Farther down the list Scat Daddy (2008), Lion Heart (2005), Street Sense (2008) and Henny Hughes (2007) are also doing well. Who would have thought Lion Heart and Henny Hughes would becoming such good broodmare sires? It makes one think that their exportations were perhaps a little premature.
     Among the youngest - by age of their first crop daughters - that are working their way onto this list, are Blame (10 stakes winners), Colonel John (7), Lookin At Lucky (7) and Uncle Mo (7).

An Unsoundness Gene (June 30, 2022)
A recent article on The from June 30, 2022 is headlined "Study Links Gene to Soundness in Racehorses" when it might more significantly read "Study Links Gene to Unsoundness in Racehorses." The study in question is published as a paper released in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B and is officially titled "Inbreeding Depression and the probability of racing in the Thorougbhred Horse," authored by Emmeline W. Hill, Martin A. Stoffel, Beatrice A. McGivney, David E. MacHugh and Josephine M. Pemberton. In this study, the DNA of unraced Thoroughbreds is compared with those that raced and the data indicated that horses who were unraced were more likely to carry homozygous alleles of a certain gene, THR14, which appears to be related to musculoskeletal development and repair. [You can read the research paper here.] The paper also studied the inbreeding in these homozygous individuals and found that the unraced horses had more inbreeding than the raced horses. The obvious conclusion is that inbreeding increases the chances of inheritence of this "unsoundness gene," so all of you who are slap happy about inbreeding and like having a lot of those ancestor names lit up as duplicated, be a little careful about what you are doing. We've all been told that inbreeding is risky and can be dangerous, and here's one proven reason why. Use some common sense and try to avoid a lot of inbreeding in your matings, and especially try to avoid inbreeding to unsound individuals. You could use a rule of thumb I like to follow by outcrossing inbred individuals. The purpose of that is to increase heterozygosity or "hybrid vigor" which is so important in creating a superior athlete.

Gun Runner, Sire Phenom (May 22, 2022)
If it seems like I'm biased toward all things Gun Runner, it's partially true. I loved him when he was racing, fell in deeper love when I first laid eyes on him after he retired to Three Chimneys Farm, and my love was vindicated when he became the Leading Freshman Sire at the end of 2021. Now he's sired a first-crop classic winner in Early Voting, who ran off with the Preakness Stakes-G1 yesterday at Pimlico. Does it get better? Probably, but let's look at what he's done so far. (Read the rest of the article here.)
Giant's Causeway appears in the pedigrees of 9 potential contenders on the 2022 Kentucky Derby points list. (May 1, 2022)
Epicenter (by Not This Time by Giant's Causeway)
Zandon (out of a mare by Creative Cause, by Giant's Causeway)
Cyberknife (by Gun Runner who is out of a mare by Giant's Causeway)
Taiba (by Gun Runner who is out of a mare by Giant's Causeway)
Simplification (by Not This Time by Giant's Causeway)
Classic Causeway (by Giant's Causeway)
Early Voting (by Gun Runner who is out of a mare by Giant's Causeway)
Pioneer of Medina (out of a mare by Eskendereya by Giant's Causeway)
In Due Time (by Not This Time by Giant's Causeway)
April 13 introduced us to the first winners by this year's North American freshman sires. At Keeneland, Mo Town was represented by the maiden special winner Mr. Gordy. At Turf Paradise, Bolt d'Oro's Pop d'Oro won a trial for the Open Spring Futurty at that track. Let's see who's next. (4/15/22)
I've finished my evaluation of the freshman sire class of 2022, those with their first two-year-olds racing this year. You can read it here. (January 29, 2022)
*** Oops! I forgot West Coast on my first posting so I've updated to include him (February 1, 2022)
The Freshman Sires of 2021 were led in dramatic fashion by Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year, who can now add to his titles that of Leading Freshman Sire of 2021 and Leading Juvenile Sire of 2021, a remarkable feat for a first-year stallion who came out in front of stallions like Into Mischief and Quality Road. It's notable that three other freshman sires finished in the top 10 Juvenile List by earnings:  Practical Joke (4th), Connect (fifth) and Classic Empire (10th).
     I did pretty well in my predictions last February. My picks were:
Gun Runner (#1 by earnings - Freshman and Juvenile lists, #1 by winners with 30 and tied #1 by stakes winners with 6)
Practical Joke (#2 by earnings, co-4th by # winners with 24, and tied #1 by stakes winners with 6)
Classic Empire (#4 by earnings, co-8th by winners with 20, and 2 stakes winners)
Klimt (#6 by earnings, co-4th by # winners with 24 winners)
Mohaymen (#9 by earnings, co-8th by winners with 20)
Mastery (#20 by earnings, 10 winners)

Among the pleasant surprises:
Mohaymen, my wild card pick who stood for only $7,500 his first season and continues to stand at that bargain price in 2022.
Connect a later-maturing type who ended the year #3 by earnings, #2 by winners with 27 and 2 stakes winners.
Cupid, another later-maturing horse with a late season rush to #5 by earnings and 2 stakes winners from a starting fee of $12,500, making his 2022 fee of $5,000 look pretty inviting. (January 13, 2022)
2021 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 12/31/21earnings $
Gun Runner (KY)$4,278,641
Practical Joke (KY)$2,184,295
Connect (KY) $2,055,414
Classic Empire (KY) $1,644,535
Cupid (KY)$1,303,358
2021 Freshman Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
#black type wnrs
Gun Runner (KY)6 - Gunite (G1)
     Echo Zulu (G1)
     Pappacap (G2)
     Wicked Halo (G2)
Practical Joke (KY)6 - Wit (G3)
      Girl With a Dream
      Joker Boy
      Stand Up Comic
      Tejano Twist
Caravaggio (KY)4 - Agartha (G3)
      Dizzy Bizu
      Her World
      Tenebrism (G1)
Unified (KY)3 - Behave Virginia
      Roger McQueen
      Unified Report
Classic Empire (KY)2 - Classy Edition
      First Empire
Connect (KY) 2 - Hidden Connection-G3
     Rattle N Roll-G1
Cupid (KY) 2 - God of Love (G3)
      The Sky is Falling
El Deal (LA)2 - Free Like a Girl
     True Deal
Gormley (KY) 2 - Bron and Brow
     High Oak
Iron Fist (LA) 2 - Buckley Bunny
      Fiesty Fist
Mohaymen (KY) 2 - Elm Drive (G2)
Neolithic (FL)2 - Cattin
      Make It Big
Astern (AUS) 1 - Sail By
Bal A Bali (KY)1 - Corner Office
Bird Song (KSA)1 - Pretty Birdie
Divining Rod (M)D1 - Local Motive
Eagle (TX)1 - Eagle Express
Hootenanny (KY) 1 - Hicksy
Lord Nelson (KY)1 - Navit
Madefromlucky (MD)1 - Epic Luck
Midnight Storm (KY)1 - Senor Testaferro
Mo Tom (LA)1 - Wholelottamo
Noble Bird (FL)1 - Strategic Board
Shaman Ghost (ONT)1 - Slack Tide
Straight Fire (CA)1 - Straight Up G
Valiant Minister (FL) 1 - Outfoxed
2021 Freshman Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Gun Runner (KY)31 / 6
Connect (KY) 27 / 2
Caravaggio (KY) 26 / 4
Klimt (KY) 24
Practical Joke (KY)24 / 6
Cupid (KY)23 / 2
Gormley (KY)23 / 2
American Freedom (KY)20
Classic Empire (KY)20 / 2
Mohaymen (KY)20 / 2
Divining Rod (MD)17 / 1
Keen Ice (KY)17
Shaman Ghost (ONT)17 / 1
Unified (KY) 16 / 3
Bal A Bali (BRZ) (KY) 15 / 1
Arrogate (died, KY)13
Astern (AUS) (KY)12 / 1
Stanford (CA)12
Mastery (KY)11
Midnight Storm (KY)11 / 1
Noble Bird (FL)11 / 1
Danzing Candy (CA)10
Straight Fire (CA)10 / 1
Iron Fist (LA)8 / 2
El Deal (LA)6 / 2
Holy Boss (MD)6
Lord Nelson (died, KY) 6 / 1
Mr. Z (KY)6
Neolithic (FL) 6 / 2
Greenpointcrusader (FL) 5
Mo Tom (LA)5 / 1
Union Jackson (NY)5
Madefromlucky (MD) 4 / 1
Ocean Knight (LA)4
Rainbow Heir (MD)4
Blofeld (MD)3
Comfort (NM)2
Dortmund (KOR)2
Editorial (MD)2
Hootenanny (KY)2 / 1
Iliad (AB, CAN)2
Kiss The Ghost (OH)2
Long Island Sound (ARG)2
Takeover Target (LA)2
Texas Ryano (CA)2
Valiant Minister (FL) 2 / 1
Wildcat Red (KY)2
Bethel (NY)1
Biogenic (pensioned, KY)1
Bird Song (KSA)1 / 1
Black Bear (OK)1
Black Stash (FL) 1
Catalina Red (LA)1
Cat Burglar (CA)1
Conspiracy (PR) 1
Dynamic Impact (OR)1
Eagle (TX) 1 / 1
Kobe's Back (MD)1
Passion for Action (ONT)1
Perfect Timber (ONT)1
Pontiff (WA)1
Prince of Love (CA)1
Proceed (NM)1
Saburo (PA?)1
Toews On Ice (NM)1
Tom's Ready (pensioned; LA)1
War Correspondent (KY; sent to Turkey)1

     Let's look back one more time at the 2021 Report of Mares Bred. In Kentucky, there were a total of 205 stallions who bred 16,727 mares. Of that group, there were 111 stallions which are considered "proven," that is, whose first foals were at least three years old in 2021, those who went to stud no later than 2017. These 111 horses (54.14% of the total) covered 7,686 mares, which is 45.94% of the mares. Oddly, they only averaged 62.24 mares each. This means that there were 94 unproven stallions, 45.85% of the stallion population, who covered 9,041 of the mares, a majority of 54.05%, and averaged 96.18 mares bred. In 2021, 26 new stallions entered stud in Kentucky, and they covered 3,430 mares between them, for an average of 131.92 mares each, making them the most in-demand category.
     So there's irrefutable evidence that mare owners prefer to use unproven stallions, despite the inherent risk of wasting one's mare on a stallion who turns out to be a genetic dud. One reason is that the best stallions, Into Mischief and Tapit for example, are too expensive and exclusive for many breeders, so they look to unproven sons of those sires hoping to strike gold. Another reason is because the buyers on the other end, those bidding on in-foal mares, weanlings and yearlings, seem to prefer young, unproven sires. There's no logic to it, since the vast majority of hopeful first-year stallions every year in Kentucky fail. Many are shipped out before they even have foals of racing age.
     Kentucky lost about 24 stallions for the upcoming 2022 breeding season, led by the retirements of Distorted Humor, Stormy Atlantic, Congrats and Broken Vow; and the deaths of Bernardini and Lord Nelson. The rest account for the usual re-shuffling of stallions to other states and countries for any number of reasons, mostly because they didn't live up to the level of production in the sales ring or on the track in the world's most demanding Thoroughbred market.
     Compare this to the intake of 21 new/first-year stallions led by Essential Quality, the Champion Two-Year-Old Male of 2020 and likely Champion Three-Year-Old Male of 2021, who leads this group with a well-earned fee of $75,000. He's one of 14 Grade 1 winners in this class (including Knicks Go, Maxfield, Charlatan, Code of Honor and Raging Bull (FR)); 5 Grade 2 winners, 1 Grade 3 winner and 1 Graded-placed. (Copyright Anne Peters Dec 31, 2021)

With the Jockey Club releasing the Report of Mares Bred for 2021, we can make some interesting observations. The leader in Kentucky by number of mares bred was Goldencents with 230. His sire, Into Mischief, bred a measly 214 mares. Is Spendthrift narrowing the champion sire's book a little, or is the market leveling out at the $225,000 fee he commanded in 2021? By comparison, Into Mischief bred 248 mares in 2020. On the other hand, there are a few cases of remarkable rebounds in book size really worth consideration. The star in this group has to be the success story known as Maclean's Music, who went from 57 mares in 2020 to 221 mares in 2021. It's no wonder they pushed his fee from $20,000 to $50,000. Brody's Cause got only 49 mares in 2020, but 147 in 2021, after his first-crop G2 winner Kalypso attracted attention. Unified went from 68 mares in 2020 to 144 in 2021. Now he's got three stakes winners in his first crop of 2-year-olds, so the breeders' instincts were right. Gormley, also a leading freshman sire this year, bred 72 mares in 2020 and 158 in 2021. Consistent and proven Violence went from 86 mares to 159 mares in 2021. Unproven Mo Town bred 108 mares in his second season then nearly doubled that number with 204 in his third. His first foals must have impressed. (October 27, 2021)
RISING BROODMARE SIRES UPDATED: In the right hand column below the pretty pictures, I keep a list of what I refer to as "rising broodmare sires" of stakes winners. I've gone through the upcoming 2021 Keeneland November Sale and updated the broodmare sire statistics here accordingly. There are a few sires working their way up this list in a remarkable way. Bernardini daughters are proving to be real gems, as are daughters of Empire Maker. It's no surprise that Tapit and Speightstown are moving up rapidly as broodmare sires of stakes winners. Hard Spun and Street Sense are also upwardly mobile as broodmare sires. Scat Daddy (not surprising) and Henny Hughes (kind of surprising) are also moving up. (October 7, 2021)
GUN RUNNER'S SPECTACULAR FIRST CROP. On September 6, Gun Runner's 2-year-old colt Gunite won the Hopeful Stakes-G1 at Saratoga becoming his sire's fourth stakes winner. That was just one day after his filly Echo Zulu won the Spinaway Stakes-G1. Another daughter, Wicked Halo won the Adirondack Stakes-G2 earlier in the meeting on August 8. The day prior to her win, Gun Runner's son Pappacap became his first stakes winner with victory in the Best Pal Stakes-G2 at Del Mar. This blast of Graded stakes winners has made first crop sire Gun Runner the hottest young stallion in the country. It's still early days as far as determining his best bloodline crosses, but worth noting that Gunite, Echo Zulu and Pappacap are all out of Storm Cat-line mares. Wicked Halo's second dam is by Storm Cat-line sire Harlan's Holiday. Since Gun Runner is out of a mare by Storm Cat's son Giant's Causeway, these all have duplications to Storm Cat at some level. Gunite is actually 3x3 to Giant's Causeway and so 4x4 Storm Cat. Echo Zulu is 4x4 Storm Cat. Wicked Halo and Pappacap are both 4x5 to Storm Cat. It's nice to see a horse who was so brilliant, brave and generous with his speed, turn this into a potentially great stallion career. I have a funny feeling that his stud fee is going to jump a little from his 2021 fee of $50,000. Who wants to guess how high? 9/11/21
I've finished my evaluation of the first crop sires represented by their first two-year-olds of 2021. This is a group that includes stars like Arrogate, Gun Runner and Classic Empire. You can read it here. (February 12, 2021)
Here's a question. Essential Quality was just named Champion 2-Year-Old Male of 2020, being undefeated in 3 starts including the Breeders Futurity-G1 and Breeders' Cup Juvenile-G1, both at a mile and a sixteenth in his last two starts. So how come the current Kentucky Derby favorite is Life Is Good, whose only stakes qualification is a win in the Sham Stakes-G3 at a mile? I don't get it.

Nyquist ended the year as Leading Freshman Sire, taking command after his daughter Vequist won that big purse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1. He had 17 winners (tied for third behind Not This Time and Outwork; and even with Air Force Blue). Laoban ended the season as #2, with the help of 3 stakes winners including G1 winner Simply Ravishing and G2 winner Keepmeinmind out of his 13 winners. This makes his move to WinStar in Kentucky for 2021 look like a profitable move. Both Nyquist and Laoban are from the first crop by Uncle Mo, whose son Outwork came in #4 by earnings and #2 by winners (with 19), behind Not This Time in both categories. Not This Time led this sire list off and on throughout the racing season. He ended it #3 by earnings, but #1 by winners by a large margin with 28 individual winners, 9 more than Outwork. Not This Time also had 3 stakes winners led by G1 winner Princess Noor.

A couple of popular stallions whose progeny did not come out as quickly included Runhappy with 9 winners and zero stakes winners and California Chrome 8 winners, zero stakes winners. Both of these might have a better record next year when their first crop gets another year of maturity as three-year-olds.

My early picks and end of year results:
Nyquist - #1 by earnings; 17 winners, 2 stakes winners
- #15 by earnings, 9 winners
- #3 by winners (18)
Brody's Cause
- #10 by earnings; 6 winners, 2 stakes winners
- #4 by earnings, #2 by winners (19)
- #6 by earnings, #3 by winners (18)

2020 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 12/31/20earnings $
Nyquist (KY)$2,424,083
Laoban (KY) $1,559,748
Not This Time (KY) $1,537,138
Outwork (KY)$1,260,790
Frosted (KY) $   949,396
2020 Freshman Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
#black type wnrs
Laoban (NY)   3 Simply Ravishing-G1
Not This Time (KY)  3 Princess Noor-G1
      Dirty Dangle
Brody's Cause (KY)  2 Sittin On Go-G3
Nyquist (KY)  2 Vequist-G1,
      Gretsky the Great
Outwork (KY)   2 Outadore,
Speightster (KY)   2 That Kenney Kid
      Dreaming of Drew
Cinco Charlie (KY)   1 Huntsinger
Dynamic Sky (ONT)  1 Jillie Marie
Frosted (KY)   1 Travel Column
Hit It a Bomb (KY)  1 Weston-G2
Ironicus (KY)  1 Helium
Juba (WV)  1 Hopping Henry
Marking (NM)   1 Delbert Too
Mosler (MD)   1 Miss Nondescript
Noosito   1 Dutton
Peace and Justice (PA)  1 Like a Saltshaker
Reload (ONT)   1 Red River Rebel
Slumber (GB) (KY)   1 Fluffy Socks
Tamarkuz (KY)  1 Red Flag
Texas Red (KY)  1 My Girl Red-G2
War Dancer (NY)  1 Step Dancer
Vancouver (AUS)  1 Madone
2020 Freshman Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Not This Time (KY)28 / 3
Outwork (KY)19 / 2
Upstart (KY) 18
Air Force Blue (KY) 17
Nyquist (KY)17 / 2
Frosted (KY) 16 / 1
Speightster (KY) 15 / 2
Cinco Charlie (KY)14 / 1
Exaggerator (KY) 13
Laoban (NY) 13 / 3
Mshawish (KY) 13
Tourist (KY)13
Mosler (MD) 10 / 1
Runhappy (KY)   9
Vancouver (AUS)   9 / 1
Anchor Down (KY)   8
California Chrome (JPN)  8
Reload (ONT)  8 / 1
Texas Red (KY)  8 / 1
Jess's Dream (FL)  7
Uncle Lino (PA)  7
Brody's Cause (KY)  6 / 2
Flintshire (GB) (KY)  6
War Dancer (NY)   6 / 1
Effinex (dead)   5
Hit It a Bomb (KY)  5 / 1
Juba (WV)   5 / 1
Tamarkuz (KY)   5 / 1
Firing Line (KY)  4
Harry's Holiday (IN)   4
Majestic Harbor (CA)   4
Marking (NM)   4 / 1
Social Inclusion (PA)   4
Ami's Holiday (ONT)  3
Den's Legacy (OK)   3
Peace and Justice (MD)   3 / 1
Protonico (KY)   3
Ride On Curlin (FL)  3
Animal Style (IN)  2
Awesome Indian (NM)   2
Golden Years (WV)   2
Ironicus (KY)   2 / 1
Noosito (died)  2 / 1
Prayer For Relief (IN)  2
Producer (GB) (KY)  2
Punctuate (NM)   2
Alsono  1
Barbados (MD)   1
Bernster (NM)   1
Big Blue Kitten (KY)  1
Bradester (TX)   1
Decisive Moment  1
Dynamic Sky (CAN)   1 / 1
Itsthesameoldsong (OH)   1
Metaboss   1
Slumber (GB) (KY)   1 / 1
Street Strategy (AR)   1
Uptown Rythem   1
It's worth noting that three of the top four fresman sires are sons of Uncle Mo: Nyquist, Laoban and Outwork. All three are from Uncle Mo's remarkable first crop, born in 2013. Uncle Mo isn't a well-kept secret in the stallion ranks - his stud fee for the 2021 season is $175,000 - but it's surprising he doesn't get as much hooplah in the industry as other stallions like Into Mischief and Tapit. (posted November 22, 2020)
THE 2020 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD - do they have the stamina to win?
A discussion on the current top 20 Kentucky Derby points qualfiers with statistics on their race records and pedigrees regarding proven or potential distance ability. (posted August 28, 2020)
THE FIRST WINNERS BY FRESHMAN SIRES. (June 14, 2020) Because the 2020 racing season has been seriously curtailed so far, there have been few 2-year-old races so far this season, so fewer juvenile winners and even fewer winners by first-crop sires. The leader so far is Taylor Made Farm's young stallion Not This Time (by Giant's Causeway) who has 2 winners already, a good early start, for a stallion who was a good 2-year-old himself. The only other freshman sire with a winner right now is WinStar Farm's Speightster.

REPORT FROM TURKEY (May 14, 2020) Thanks to my friend Günhan Demiralp, who lives in Turkey, we're given a little insight into the status of several former American stallions sent to continue their careers in his home country. He sent me the numbers below. Please note, this is by no means a complete listing of stallions/leading sires standing in Turkey.

2019 Stallion Ranking / Turkey
1. Victory Gallop
2. Unaccounted For (died 2013)
4. Mountain Cat (inactive)
7. Strike the Gold (died 2011)
9. Lion Heart

2020 Covers Turkish Jockey Club stallions
Bodemeister 100 full
Daredevil 120 full
Lion Heart 100 full
Super Saver 120 full
Victory Gallop 70 full (limited to 70 from 377 applications due to age)

2020 Covers / Private
General Quarters 50
Papa Clem 45
Tizway 95

THE NATIONAL MUSEUM OF RACING AND HALL OF FAME HAS ANNOUNCED TWO WORTHY HORSES AMONG THE INDUCTEES FOR 2020. The one most people will know is two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan, a great fan favorite of recent years who I wrote about for The Blood-Horse in 2013. The other inductee is the less well-known Nineteenth Century hero Tom Bowling, an awe-inspiring horse who I wrote about in 2015. Click on their names to read more about each of these great runners. (May 6, 2020)
THE FRESHMAN SIRES OF 2020 (March 28, 2020)
In a time of uncertainty in racing, when the Kentucky Derby has been delayed, and racing shut down across the country due to the coronavirus, who knows where we'll be at the end of the year, but presuming racing gets back on it's feet, here are some observations on the Freshman Sires of 2020 and my guesses at the year-end leaders.

2020 KY STALLION INTAKE AND LOSS (updated Jan 25, 2020)
As the 2020 breeding season approaches, it's worth noting that while Kentucky is getting 19 new stallions, it's losing 37, which is ALOT. Most are moving to other states, although 12 are going out of the country, with at least 4 (and possibly 6) pensions, and 1 death. Usually there's almost a balance between the gains and losses, but not since 2015 have we seen such a disparity between new horses and those dropping off the Kentucky roster. Compare this year's numbers to the last few years in the table below (numbers might not be exact). It's likely due to the increasingly large stallion books for popular stallions and the irrational demand for first-year stallions, combined with a dramatic drop-off in demand for stallions whose progeny are showing weakness in the commercial market.

I have 3 words of caution for stallion farms and breeders who give up too early on young, relatively unproven sires: "Take Charge Indy." After 3 seasons at WinStar Farm and discouraging first-crop yearling sales (a 2016 average of $38,833 and median of $22,000), Take Charge Indy was sold to South Korea. Now the sire of 20 black-type stakes winners from those first 3 crops, he has returned to WinStar for the 2020 season at a fee of $17,500, the same as his last Kentucky season in 2016. Let's hope buyers can ignore the fact that his yearlings might not be perfect, but they sure can run.

YearKY Incoming:KY Losing:includes:
202019394 (or 6) pensioned, 2 died
201924222 pensioned, 2 died
201826302 pensioned, 2 died
201732292 pensioned, 4 died
201630233 pensioned, 5 died
201517333 pensioned, 3 died
201431334 pensioned, 2 died
201332253 pensioned, 4 died
CONGRATULATIONS TO GREG NEWELL!  His 2-year-old homebred filly Precious (by Fed Biz - Brilliant Sunshine by Smarty Jones) won the Blue Mountain Juvenile Fillies Stakes on November 27, 2019. Fed Biz was one of my top mating suggestions for Brilliant Sunshine that season. (posted November 28, 2019)

2019 Freshman Sires
I picked the year-end title holder, American Pharoah, but it seemed like a no-brainer at the time. I didn't do so well with the rest, except Liam's Map, who was #4 by earnings. Daredevil has been sent to Turkey. Palace had a lot of winners, but only 1 stakes winner. Bayern had a lot of winners, but no stakes winners. Hmmm.
My picks and end of year results:
American Pharoah - #1 by earnings, co-#2 by stakes winners (4), co-#1 by winners (27)
Daredevil - 12 winners, 1 stakes winner
Palace - 17 winners, 1 stakes winner
Liam's Map - #4 by earnings, 16 winners, 2 stakes winners
Bayern - 22 winners

2019 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5) thru 12/31/19earnings $
American Pharoah (KY)$2,703,916
Constitution (KY) $2,168,422
Palace Malice (KY) $1,761,057
Liam's Map (KY)$1,466,934
Tapiture (KY) $1,461,988
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
Constitution (KY) 5 - Amalfi Sunrise-G2,
     By Your Side-G3
     Independence Hall-G3
     Laura's Light
     Tiz The Law-G1
American Pharoah (KY)4 - Four Wheel Drive-G2T
     Sweet Melania-G2
     Maven-G3 FR
     Another Miracle
Competitive Edge (KY)4 - Majestic Gold
     My Italian Rabbi
      Fierce Lady
      Sassy Seneca
Race Day (KY) 4 - Consultora
      Gee She Sparkles
      Mom's Red Lipstick
      Race Home
Fast Anna (KY)3 - Been Studying Her
      Fast Scene,
      Scotty Boy
Karakontie (JPN) (KY)3 - Kenzai Warrior-G3 ENG
     Sole Volante
Carpe Diem (KY)2 - Bella Aurora
      Van Daelen
Commissioner (KY) 2 - Soros
      Two Last Words
Golden Lad (MD)2 - Hello Beautiful
      Laddie Liam
Khozan (FL)2 - Airbus (PER)
     Liam's Lucky Charm
Lea (KY)2 - Muskoka Gold
Liam's Map (KY)2 - Wicked Whisper-G1
Palace Malice (KY)2 - Structor-G1T
Summer Front (KY)2 - Fighting Seabee-G3T
Tapiture (KY) 2 - Sky of Hook
      Vacherie Girl
Bakken (ALB) 1 - Bare Back Jack
Boat Trip (CA)1 - Bettor Trip Nick
Bourbon Courage (MD1 - Raging Whiskey
Daredevil (KY)1 - Deviant
Dramedy (OK) 1 - Southgate
Frac Daddy (ONT) 1 - Owlette
Fury Kapcori (FL)1 - High On Gin
Hangover Kid (MD)1 - Miss J McKay
Imagining (MD) 1 - Monday Morning Qb
Palace (KY)1 - Chacha Real Smooth
Tonalist (KY)1 - Tonalist's Shape
Wicked Strong (KY)1 - Wicked Runner
Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
American Pharoah (KY)27 / 4
Constitution (KY) 27 / 5
Tapiture (KY)27 / 2
Wicked Strong (KY) 26 / 1
Competitive Edge (KY) 24 / 4
Bayern (KY) 22
Palace Malice (KY) 20 / 2
Khozan (FL)18 / 2
Carpe Diem (KY)17 / 2
Palace (KY) 17 / 1
Liam's Map (KY)16 / 2
Summer Front (KY)16 / 2
The Big Beast (FL)16
Commissioner (KY)15 / 2
Honor Code (KY)14
Race Day (KY)14 / 4
Tonalist (KY)14 / 1
Daredevil (KY)12 / 1
Danza (KY) 11
Fast Anna (KY)11 / 3
Karakontie (KY) 11 / 3
Mr Speaker (KY)11
Golden Lad (MD)10 / 2
Hampton Court (AUS)10
Secret Circle (KY)10
Bourbon Courage (MD)8 / 1
Console (PR)8
Frac Daddy (ONT)8 / 1
Lea (KY) 8 / 2
Bahamian Squall (FL)7
Fury Kapcori (FL)7 / 1
Jack Milton (KY)7
Bakken (ALB)6 / 1
Chitu (FL)5
Conveyance (KY) 5
Govenor Charlie (CA)5
Imagining (MD)5 / 1
Lent (BC) 5
Lotsa Mischief5
Curlin to Mischief (CA) 4
Dramedy (OK) 4 / 1
Majestic City (NY)4
Medal Count (OH)4
Micromanage (NY)4
Silver Max (ONT)4
Sky Kingdom (KY)4
Normandy Invasion (KY)3
Seek Again (ARG)3
We Miss Artie (KY)3
Admiral Kitten (SAF)2
Alpha Bettor (died)2
Blueskiesnrainbows (OK) 2
Boat Trip (CA)2 / 1
Call Me George (LA) 2
Conquest Curlinate (CAN)2
Global Power (OH)2
Golden Ticket (NY)2
I Spent It (OK)2
Japan (NY) 2
Rousing Sermon (CA)2
Young Brian (FL)2
Amira's Prince (IRE) (FL) 1
Animal Style (IN)1
Chart Topper (ONT) 1
Cryptolight (OH) 1
Declassify (ALB) 1
Gold For Cash1
Hangover Kid (MD)1 / 1
Katz My Song (FL)1
Last Draw 1
Last Gunfighter (Died)1
Midnight Crooner (OK) 1
Mr. Prankster1
Mr. Rancho Vista (WA) 1
Pataky Kid (IN)1
Tiz a Minister (CA)1
Vaporetto (PR)1
Xixixi (PA)1
War of Will wins the Preakness Stakes. In the absence of Kentucky Derby first-place finisher Maximum Security and the official Kentucky Derby winner Country House (via DQ of Maximum Security), War of Will got the opportunity he needed to prove himself. On a fast track, with no traffic jam, he stayed on the rail, took advantage of the hole when it opened and posted an unquestioned victory in the Preakness Stakes. Even though his pedigree screams turf, this War Front colt out of a Sadler's Wells mare loves the dirt. He's inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer, and his dam is 4x4 to the great broodmare Lalun via the proven nick of Sadler's Wells (dam by Bold Reason) out of a mare by Riverman (by Never Bend).
Country House wins the Kentucky Derby! When I posted my article on Kentucky Derby stamina figures (below), Country House was not among the top 20 contenders, but with the defection of Signalman, he made the list of starters. At the time I didn't have his pedigree data included but I have updated the article and accompanying chart to include Country House's stamina figures as a matter of reference. Being by Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, he has a reasonable stamina background, better, in fact, than I had calculated for the first place finisher Maximum Security, who was ultimately disqualified and placed 18th.
Kentucky Derby pedigrees in 2019. Do they have the stamina to win it? (Posted April 24, 2019 and updated May 5, 2019)
2019 FRESHMAN SIRES (uploaded March 7, 2019)
Click here to read my evaluation of the freshman sires whose first 2-year-olds will be debuting this year. It's a large and interesting group. The accompanying table gives an overview that shows how many mares each one has been bred to for the last 3 years, as well as their first crop yearling average from last year. Those numbers will given you an indication of how popular they are commercially, and which ones might be siring the better-looking offspring.

Spoiler Alert! My predictions on who will end the year at the top of the Freshman Sire List are:

American Pharoah
Liam's Map
CONGRATULATIONS TO OWNER/BREEDER DICK OTTO whose homebred SIR ANTHONY (2015 r. by Mineshaft - Mourette by Smart Strike) won the Harlan's Holiday Stakes-G3 on December 15, 2018 defeating favorite Audible. Dick has been a long-time client and Mineshaft was among my top recommendations for stakes-placed Mourette when she retired from the track in 2014. Sir Anthony is her first foal.
2018 FRESHMAN SIRES (1st 2yos in 2018) (thru Dec 31, 2018) My discussion on Freshman Sires can be read here.
2018 Freshman leaders by earnings (top 5)$
Cross Traffic (KY)$2,115,603
Goldencents (KY) $1,396,758
Cairo Prince (KY) $1,254,485
Central Banker (NY) $1,029,580
Will Take Charge (KY)$   972,222
Leaders by individual winners# wnrs / # black type sws
Goldencents (KY) 29 / 2
Cairo Prince (KY)19 / 2
Cross Traffic (KY) 18 / 5
Revolutionary (KY) 16 / 1
Noble Mission (KY) 14
Will Take Charge (KY) 14 / 1
He's Had Enough (FL) 13
Itsmyluckyday (KY) 13
Verrazano (KY)13 / 2
Can The Man (KY)12
Fed Biz (KY) 12 / 1
Flashback (KY)11
Mucho Macho Man (KY)11 / 1
Atreides (KY) 10 / 2
Central Banker (NY)10 / 2
Drill (FL)10 / 1
Tritap (Died, MD)10 / 1
Handsome Mike (FL)9
Mark Valeski (KY)9 / 1
Strong Mandate (KY)9
Honorable Dillon (NY)8
Magician (IRE)8
Souper Speedy (ONT)8 / 2
Uncaptured (FL)8 / 3
Real Solution (LA)7
Shakin It Up (KY)7 / 1
Leaders by stakes winners
(black type)
Cross Traffic (KY)5 (Jaywalk-G1,
    Cross Dancer,     
    Dancin Shoes,
    Dame Plata)
Uncaptured (FL) 3 (Bye Bye J,
   Capture Your Dream)
Atreides (KY)2 (Sueno,
Cairo Prince (KY)

2 (Cairo Cat-G3
     Giza Goddess)

Central Banker (NY)2 (Bankit,
    Sassy Agnes)
Goldencents (KY) 2 (Pickett,
Souper Speedy (ONT)2 (Blessed Two,
    Speedy Soul)
Verrazano (KY) 2 (Seek and Destroy,
    Stirling Drive)
Abstraction (NM) 1 (Hustle Up)
Amanecer de Oro (LA)1 (Cabo's Rumor)
Apriority (LA) 1 (Atchata)
Bandbox (MD)1 (Follow the Dog)
Boisterous (CA)1 (Kookie Gal)
Cajun Breeze (FL) 1 (Cajun Firecracker)
Central Banker (NY)1 (Bankit)
Drill (FL)1 (Drillit)
Fed Biz (KY)1 (Zenden)
Guilt Trip (LA) 1 (Goodprofit)
Harlan's Pure (PR) 1 (Ledoux)
Lakerville (CA) 1 (Lakerball)
Mark Valeski (KY) 1 (Backtohisroots)
Merit Man (CA)1 (Give Me a Hint)
Mister Lucky Cat (OK)1 (Starling)
Mucho Macho Man (KY)1 (Mucho Gusto-G3)
Revolutionary (KY) 1 (Maiden Beauty)
Shakin It Up (KY) 1 (B. B. Dude)
Tritap (died, MD)1 (My Star Potential)
Well Spelled (PA) 1 (Well Graced)
Will Take Charge (KY)1 (Kim K)
I update a list of rising young broodmare sires in the right column to help breeders. Since the mixed sales are just around the corner, it's worth taking a look. Stallions who are quickly working their way up this list include Speightstown, Henny Hughes, Van Nistelrooy and Include.
THE TRAVERS STAKES is a significant sire-predicting race. Read my article from 2013 here. It might be time to update that one!
We may never know what makes him great but it's worth taking a tour of his pedigree and try to find out what might be making him tick. (June 15, 2018)
We're starting to see announcements for stallions going to stud in 2019 (Mo Town, Mind Your Biscuits) so it's time to change the "New Stallions and Roster Changes" to the 2019 edition. There's already have an extensive list of horses in training and their prospective farms on retirement, but they may or may not stay in training next year. They're included on this list, too, so breeders can be aware of who might be available next year and make inquiries accordingly. I've also put up a new Stud Fees page, although 2019 fees won't be announced until much later in the year. Right now, the page just reflects last year's fees and I cobble in my best guess where the new horses may fall until there's an official announcement to firm up the list. (May 23, 2018)
In celebration of the Preakness, Maryland's great race, let me tell you why I am fascinated by horse cemeteries and the Sagamore Farm cemetery especially. (May 17, 2018)
WHERE ARE THEY NOW? How are last year's leading freshman sires doing with their first 3-year-olds? (5/8/18)
Take Charge Indy has taken over where Overanalyze and Violence left off at the end of 2017. Last year he was third by earnings and number of winners and had 2 stakes winners. Through May 7, 2018, he has 4 stakes winners including Noble Indy-G2 and Take Charge Paula-G3. WinStar has made noises about negotiating to get him back from South Korea, where he has spent the 2017 and 2018 breeding seasons.
Jimmy Creed has moved up quite a bit from last year and has 3 stakes winners so far this year including Kanthaka-G2 and new stakes winner Blame the Rider. His good filly Spectator, a G2 winner last year, is on the comeback trail and was second in the Santa Anita Oaks-G1.
Violence remains hot, with 2 stakes-winning fillies: Cosmic Burst-G3 and Cicatrix.
Florida-bases Prospective has made an appearance with 2 stakes winners in 2018, Prospective Lady and Piven.
Last year's leader Overanalyze has a stakes winner in Puerto Rico but hasn't maintained his momentum from last year. None of his 4 2018 stakes winners have come back to win a stakes this year yet.
Shanghai Bobby had 3 stakes winners last year, but none have returned to that form yet in 2018. He does, however, have 3 stakes-placed Northern Hemisphere runners which is hopeful, and his first Brazilian-bred crop is starting to run well, too, with 3 more stakes-placed.
Both Shanghai Bobby and Overanalyze need to get some more Northern Hemisphere stakes winners to maintain their strong early reputations.
Animal Kingdom is doing reasonably well with stakes winner Camilla Princess here (and Peaceful State in Australia) and several stakes-placed performers in both hemispheres, although his progenty continues to show a turf bias.
It's still too early to give a thumbs up or thumbs down on this crop of sires but we'll have a better idea of where things stand success or failure-wise by the Saratoga meet.
An early look at Kentucky Derby contenders and who I like. (March 22, 2018) Click here to go to the article [Spoiler Alert! Justify won the Kentucky Derby, by Scat Daddy out of a Ghostzapper mare.]
It's been a while since I've seen statistics on breed averages. I think they're useful if we keep them in context. Way back in the 1980s, The Blood-Horse published breed averages that indicated that the top stallions averaged at least 5% stakes winners to foals. I still use this number to evaluate proven sires, although now that the TBH has switched to "black type winners" the numbers have shifted. Out of curiosity, I ran a few statistics based solely on averages for the Kentucky stallion colony (active sires with at least 2 crops of racing age in 2018 based on stats in early March):
2018 Fee
(KY only)
% BT wnrs
All proven sires
$100k and up
$50k to $99k
$20 to $49k
$12.5k to $19k
$ 7.5k to $11.9k
$5k to $7.4k
$2k to 4.9k
*AEI = Average Earnings Index of progeny
**CI = Comparable Index of mares bred
+AWD = average winning distance (furlongs)
1. Note that the average of black type winners to foals for proven sires in Kentucky is 3.24%. Among the ultra elite sires, with fees of $100,000 and up, that number is 6.97%; the next tier, elite sires from $50,000, averages 5.87% black type winners. This number along with AEI are the ones that put the elite and ultra elite sires above the rest: their ability to produce top runners and earners.
2. Note that for the average stallions, their AEI is lower than their CI, except for the ultra elite. So statistically speaking, most stallions don't bring their mares up. This means that the ones that improve their mares are worth extra attention.
3. Note that the maximum average winning distance generally increases with the higher class sires. In other words, you pay for the stamina required to win the bigger races.
4. Caveats: Statistics at the beginning of the year are severely diluted by unraced 2-year-olds included as "horses of racing age." The best time to get stats, especially on young first or second crop sires is in late December. Stats on those first or second crop sires are usually very low. Right now, even the hot young sire Violence, currently with 5 black type winners from his first crop has only 2% stakes winners to foals and a 1.14 AEI. This doesn't mean he's below average, just that it's too early to get a truer idea of what kind of class he's throwing (but we already know he's pretty good). While larger book sizes have diluted sire stats, top sires like Uncle Mo (6.56% BT) and Giant's Causeway (7.35% BT) are still among the cream that rises to the top.
Congratulations to the connections of Unique Bella for her Eclipse Award as Champion Sprint Female of 2017. That includes Elliott Alexander, who bred her second through fourth dams. It's a true rags to riches story that I wrote about in October 2013 ("Wardelle and Wardoura"). Elliott started in the breeding business in the 1960s with a cheap "gift mare" named Wardoura, and he bred out of her and her daughters for many years. The family got better every generation. He sold a great-granddaughter of Wardoura named Queenie Belle as a 2-year-old in 1999, and watched her go on to win Grade 2 stakes for someone else. Queenie Belle produced Unrivaled Belle, who won the 2010 Breeders' Cup Distaff-G1. Does it get any better? Yes, yes, it does. Imagine how he must feel watching Unrivaled Belle's daughter, Unique Bella, 5 generations from the gift mare, Wardoura, earn a national championship. Keep on dreaming.
2018 Freshman Sires Review
I've provided an evaluation of this year's crop of Freshman Sires, those with their first 2-year-olds racing in 2018. CLICK HERE for the article and my predictions for the leaders by the end of the year.
2017 Freshman Sires - my predictions
I did pretty well on my predictions for the top freshman sires last year. My picks were:

Shanghai Bobby - #4 by earnings; #3 by # stakes winners
Violence - #2 by earnings; #1 by # winners and stakes winners (tie)
Overanalyze - #1 by earnings; #1 by stakes winners (tie); #2 by winners
Liaison - #22 by earnings; 2 stakes winners
Flat Out - #8 by earnings; #5 by # winners
Laid to rest today November 11, 2017 at Laurel Park where he ran with so much success and thrilled so many racing fans. Thanks King Leatherbury for letting me help you breed such a memorable horse.
Ben's Cat article from
CONGRATULATIONS to client Rick Waller on the victory of his wonderful homebred 2-year-old filly Spectator (2015 by Jimmy Creed - Diva's Tribute by Henny Hughes), who won the Sorrento Stakes-G2 at Del Mar on August 5, 2017. She's the first stakes winner by Jimmy Creed, who stands at Spendthrift Farm, and was bred on one of my recommendations. This is what we do it for! Read more in the article "Diva, Against All Odds" on the Paulick Report.
UPDATE: Rick Waller named TOBA Breeder of the Month for October 2018
Looking ahead to the 2018 season
The list of retiring and potential New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2018 is now up, featuring Arrogate, Classic Empire, Connect, Gun Runner, Keen Ice, Irish War Cry, Mohaymen, Shaman, Ghost and others. None of these stars have been officially retired as yet, but the farms where they'll wind up have been announced. Stay tuned to watch the stallion class of 2018 firm up to get a jump on your breeding plans. Stud fees will be added when announced.
Violence gets a stakes winner!
Violence became the first North American freshman sire with a stakes winner in his first crop when his daughter, Buy Sell Hold won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes on May 4, 2017 at Churchill Downs. Violence stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farm, KY.

FRESHMAN SIRE PICKS FOR 2017 (March 11, 2017)
I just uploaded my predictions for the leading freshman sires, those stallions who entered stud in Kentucky 2014 with their first crop racing as 2-year-olds in 2017. The article goes into extensive detail on each of the stallions from this Kentucky sire class, with a table of statistics showing number of mares bred and yearling averages/ medians to help support the analysis. As usual, my freshman sires picks lean toward stallions who were good 2-year-old runners themselves, and spoiler alert, for those who don't want to read the entire article, here are my top 5 selections.

Shanghai Bobby
Flat Out

CONGRATULATIONS to Jon Lee, on the success of his filly Ellan Vannin (2014 Spring At Last - Vulcan Rose by Fusaichi Pegasus), a $22,000 purchase among my recommendations out of the 2015 Woodbine Yearling catalog. She broke her maiden at 36-1 and followed up with a win in the Ontario Lassie Stakes at Woodbine in her second start in November, 2016. Best of luck in 2017!

2016 FRESHMAN SIRE SELECTIONS (March 8, 2016) This year's freshman sires, those with their first 2-year-olds hitting the track, are headlined by some of the darlings at last year's yearling sales: Bodemeister, The Factor, Union Rags, Tapizar, Jersey Town, Creative Cause, Shackleford and To Honor and Serve. They all have 2015 yearling averages of $75,000 or over. When I make my freshman sire choices, I like a horse who showed good form at 2, but could run into the middle distances at 3, and ran for most of the season. A classy pedigree and no major comformation issues helps, too. Union Rags seems to have the best all-around resume, being the best East Coast juvenile who grew up to win the Belmont Stakes. He's also a well-bred horse (by Dixie Union, dam by Gone West) and a striking individual. Stay Thirsty was G1-placed at 2, won the Gotham and Travers at 3, and the Cigar Mile at 4. With a top pedigree (Bernardini/Storm Bird) and all-around good looks, he's got a license to succeed. To Honor and Serve was a good late season 2-year-old, won the Cigar Mile at 3, and was a top older male at 4. His pedigree is A+ (Bernardini/ Deputy Minister) and he's a big, handsome horse. Shackleford is my wild card choice. He was a winner at 2, and was a brilliantly fast, gutsy horse, winning the Preakness at 3 and the Met Mile at 4. By Forestry, a highly underrated sire, his dam Oatsee is a true blue hen by Unbridled, and is from the same family as sires Gone West and Tentam. Finally, it's hard to ignore the hype that followed Bodemeister, and the class of mares it attracted. An extremely talented, well-bred (Empire Maker/Storm Cat) horse, he was unraced at 2, but the size and quality of his first book of mares could carry him to early success.

NEW ARTICLES (Feb 24, 2016)
The life of a freelance pedigree writer is tough and recently, The Blood-Horse discontinued the weekly Breeding/ Pedigree column in favor of a new sponsor, which means that I (and my pedigree-writing colleagues) must find other venues to share ideas. This gives me the opportunity to concentrate on this web page, so I've celebrated by adding a new article on Joe Estes, gifted writer and former editor of The Blood-Horse, to the line up on my Pedigree page.
Let me take this opportunity to encourage you to submit suggestions for future articles. What are you interested in reading about? Email me at with your ideas.

The Aga Khan has been one of the leading breeders in Europe for decades, his studs producing runners like Shergar, Zarkava, Akiyda, Shahrastani, Kahyasi, Darshaan, Sinndar, Blushing Groom, Kalamoun, Sendawar, Siyouni, Dalakhani, Daylami, and many others. His father and grandfather bred the likes of Nasrullah, Mahmoud, Bahram, Petite Etoile, Noor and Gallant Man to name just a few. His daughter, Princess Zahra, has shown a keen interest in the family's racing and breeding program and recently addressed the Asian Racing Conference, offering observations on the Aga Khan's thoroughbred program and the current state of breeding that everyone should read. You can read Princess Zahra Aga Khan's speech here. This will link you to the website for the Aga Khan's studs, which is well worth an afternoon or a few days of browsing and learning.

I picked Uncle Mo to be the Leading Freshman Sire of 2015 and he did not disappoint. He was the leader by earnings, by number of winners and by number of stakes winners (see lists below). His top colt Nyquist, winner of 3 G1 races including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, will undoubtedly be named Champion 2-Year-Old Male of 2015. Unfortunately, my other choices (Trappe Shot, Sidney's Candy, General Quarters) didn't fare as well, but we'll see how they do with their 3-year-olds in 2016. I was surprised to see Twirling Candy and Archarcharch right up there among the leading freshman sires, but good for them. Girolamo might have been the biggest surprise of all, with his first crop sired when he was standing in New York, but now he's in Kentucky and standing at $15,000, 3 times what he stood for last year.

Uncle Mo
has all the qualifications to be one of the leading freshman sires this year. He was the Champion 2-year-old himself, and was just a flat out brilliant race horse. He's by Indian Charlie, who specialized in precocious/speedy, his yearlings sold well last year, and he's going to have a lot of juvenile runners out there. Trappe Shot's yearlings sold remarkably well for his $10,000 stud fee, and he was a very fast horse by Tapit, both of which suggest early runners. I've always been impressed with Sidney's Candy, both as a horse with record-setting speed and great conformation. He's by Candy Ride, who sired Shared Belief, the champion juvenile a couple years back. I don't know how many 2-year-olds General Quarters will have from his first Florida-sired crop, but he was a horse with tremendous ability and is bred to run early, by Sky Mesa out of an Unbridled's Song mare.

While I didn't expect to see Quality Road and Super Saver come on so quickly, it doesn't surprise me since both horses were very good racehorses with great pedigrees. I was pleased to see the good showing by Munnings, who I fully expected to do well with his first 2-year-olds: #2 by number of winners, #3 by number of stakes winners, and #4 by earnings. It's good to see Tale of Ekati rank high by number of winners, with 14. Concord Point got 2 stakes winners from his first crop and is a horse to pay attention to as the first good son of Tapit with runners.

Among the stallions whose first crop will be racing in 2014, here are some of my favorites. I think Munnings has "leading freshman sire" written all over him. Fast and precocious himself, he's built for the part, and is from a strong sireline, being the first good son of Speightstown to stud in North America. Blame is a magnificent individual, and although his runners might not be as precocious as Munnings, he stands out as an outstanding runner by a very good sire from a great sire-making family going back to Rough Shod II. I liked Tale of Ekati when he was racing, and I still like him. He was a G2 winner at 2 and multiple G1 winner at 3, by Tale of the Cat, out of a Sunday Silence mare, from a great female family. Line of David impressed me with his good looks and is by Lion Heart, who was exported too soon. He is also from the immediate family of Mr. Prospector, which says a lot. Concord Point was one of the first sons of Tapit to stud and is a big, stout, handsome horse with a remarkably intense pedigree.

The top U.S. yearling sires of 2014 are rather obvious ones following the Keeneland September Sale. Tapit, War Front, Medaglia d'Oro, Bernardini, Distorted Humor, Malibu Moon and Smart Strike all had yearling medians over $200,000. Among the most profitable, Majesticperfection, represented by a lot of 2-year-old winners, had a median of $100,000, making his 2014 fee of $10,000 look pretty sweet. Blame's yearlings continued to sell well (median of $112,500). Tale of the Cat, Quality Road, Scat Daddy and Lemon Drop Kid are all good mid-range stallions with solid commercial numbers. Super Saver, Uncle Mo and Gio Ponti look very safe for now, too.. Trappe Shot is the most pleasant surprise, however. Off a $10,000 stud fee, his first crop yearling median was a whopping $85,000 and Claiborne isn't raising his fee for 2015, although he's probably already over-subscribed. For more budget-minded breeders, yearlings by freshman sire Midshipman sold well, as did those by Warrior's Reward and first crop sire Haynesfield. My oft-recommended Yes It's True is continuing to prove good value.
When a well-bred 2-year-old colt named Sea the Stars (by Cape Cross - Urban Sea) broke his maiden in Ireland in 2008, I presented him as a potential stallion prospect, but could not find enough interest. Every month or so, I would push for him again, as he graduated up the ranks, until he became the best horse in training and Horse of the Year in Europe at three. He retired to the Aga Khan's Gilltown Stud in Ireland. It is very satisfying to watch him become the hottest young sire in Europe, with a growing list of top performers including the great filly Taghrooda and the German Derby winner Sea The Moon. Will he become as great a sire as his half-brother Galileo?

Congratulations to owner Jack Oxley for his win with Sky Captian in the Dominion Day Handicap-G3 at Woodbine. Sky Captain was bred on my recommendation for breeders Three Chimneys Farm and Serengeti Stable. He's a 4-year-old son of Sky Mesa, who raced for Mr. Oxley, and who stands at Three Chimneys Farm. Sky Captain is out of the mare Anchors Away, an unraced mare from the first crop of Smarty Jones out of Away, by Dixieland Band. Anchors Away is a half-sister to the outstanding but ill-fated filly Eight Belles. Sky Captain sold for $210,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale to Mr. Oxley. He has now earned $206,513. Sky Captain is one of 6 stakes winners for Sky Mesa so far in 2014, and the 40th for him lifetime. Sky Captain is also the third stakes winner with Smarty Jones as the broodmare sire.

This year's Belmont Stakes went to Tonalist (by Tapit - Settling Mist by Pleasant Colony), who adds to the sensational record of his sire Tapit. He becomes Tapit's fifth Graded stakes winner at a distance beyond 9 furlongs, following Careless Jewel, High Tap, Headache, Tapitsfly and Teen Pauline who all scored at a longer distance. In the case of Tonalist, Tapit may have had a little help getting that extra stretch to 12 furlongs, since his dam is by the outstanding staying influence, Pleasant Colony. There are actually a lot of remarkable things about Tonalist's background that a pedigree geek woud find interesting. His dam is a half-sister to the dam of 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace. She goes back in female line, through Toll Fee and Toll Booth, to the mare Missy Baba, who is also the third dam of 2002 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, sire of Pulpit, sire of Tapit. Missy Baba is 7x4 in the pedigree, so while it's not a significant concentration of blood, it shows the high class that this family continues to generate over the generations. Close behind Tonalist at the finish was Commissioner, who is from the last crop by A.P. Indy and is out of a mare by 1997 Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold. Behind him came Medal Count, by Dynaformer, another great staying sire. Dynaformer was by Roberto out of Andover Way by His Majesty, and His Majesty's best son was Pleasant Colony. It's amazing how those staying genes rise to the surface in a race like this.

So California Chrome followed up his impressive Kentucky Derby win with an equally impressive victory in the Preakness Stakes.  This leaves the inevitable question, even as he trotted back to the Pimlico winner's circle, if he would be the one to win the first Triple Crown since Affirmed did it in 1978. Can he win the Belmont?  I don't know.  The Belmont is a tricky thing and winning or losing nowdays has more to do with circumstances than talent.  If he gets his trip, I don't see a horse in this crop that can touch him, IF he gets his trip.  This is no longer a matter of whether he's bred to go the distance, because he outran his pedigree when he won the San Felipe Stakes back in March.  He's one of those flukey horses who got the near perfect shake of the genetic lottery.  Yes, he was bred cheaply, but his pedigree is full of rich names and interesting patterns that you could spend hours poring over.  You can read more about it in the article I wrote about California Chrome in the March 29 issue of The Blood-Horse.  I'll be rooting for Chromeo in the Belmont, not because of the Triple Crown, but because he's a really good horse who wins in dominating style and seems to be head and shoulders above this crop of 3-year-olds...and he's pretty.  My weakness for flashy chestnuts goes back a long way.

Back in February, we lost a friend in Bill Currin, and my sympathies are with his wife Betty and their family. I got to know Bill and Betty during the winter and spring of 2007 when Bill was training his glamorous colt Stormello (by Stormy Atlantic - Wilshewed by Carson City), owned with partner Al Eisman, for the Florida Derby. An elegant, fiery chestnut colt, Stormello would go to the front and try to run the field off their feet, showing brilliance and bravery in those long stretch runs. I loved Stormello, who sadly died in 2011. Watching racing one day in 2012, I was transfixed by those familiar Currin colors darting out front on a blazed faced colt who went wire to wire in that free wheeling style of Stormello. I was laughing when I discovered it was Stormello's full brother, My Best Brother. My Best Brother won the Del Mar Derby-G2T that year in brilliant style, and within a month, his half brother by Bernardini out of Wilshewed brought $1,550,000 at the Keeneland September Sale. Named Gala Award, he recently won the Palm Beach Stakes-G3T at Gulfstream Park and there is the possibility that he could go on the Derby trail, like his older brother Stormello did. So that gives the Currin's lovely mare Wilshewed her third Graded stakes winner from six foals. Wilshewed is based at Cathy Parke's Valkyre Stud near Georgetown, Kentucky and she will have my sentimental vote for 2014 Broodmare of the Year.

One of the stallions I find myself recommending a lot this winter is Exchange Rate, who is priced very well at Three Chimneys at $20,000 (down from $30,000 last year). This offers commercial value since his 2013 yearlings averaged $81,259 with a median of $80,000. He's a solid proven sire whose runners win early for quick return. Mizzen Mast has also worked his way up into commercial favor, standing for $20,000 now at Juddmonte Farms, with a yearling average of $77,565 and median of $70,000. Three Chimneys has another nice proven mid-priced stallion in Sky Mesa, also priced at $20,000, with a yearling average of $66,283 and a median of $50,000.

Don't forget to check my pages regularly to keep up with stallions as they retire from the track and are headed for stud duty. This is the most comprehensive list on the web for Northern Hemisphere stallions.
New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2014
The new Kentucky stallions by stud fee are:
Animal Kingdom   (Darley, $35,000)
Orb                      (Claiborne, $25,000)
Paynter                 (WinStar, $25,000)
Point of Entry        (Adena Springs, $25,000)
Fort Larned          (Adena Springs, $20,000)
Oxbow                 (Taylor Made, $20,000)
Shanghai Bobby    (Ashford, $20,000)
Take Charge Indy (WinStar, $20,000)
Denan (AUS)        (Darley, $15,000)
Graydar                (Taylor Made, $15,000)
Raison d'Etat         (Calumet, $15,000)
Violence               (Hill 'n' Dale, $15,000)
Jimmy Creed        (Spendthrift, $12,500)
Justin Phillip          (Castleton Lyons, $12,500)
New Year's Day   (Hill 'n' Dale, $12,500)
Flat Out                (Spendthrift, $10,000)
I Want Revenge    (Pauls Mill, $10,000)
Liaison                  (Spendthrift, $10,000)
Morning Line         (Lane's End, $10,000)
Overanalyze          (WinStar, $10,000)
Power Broker       (Hill 'n' Dale, $10,000)
Alternation            (Pin Oak, $7,500)
Data Link             (Claiborne, $7,500)
Fast Bullet            (Pauls Mill, $7,500)
Snapy Halo (ARG)(Calumet, $7,500)
Swagger Jack        (Millennium, $7,500)
Keep Up               (Mill Ridge, $5,000)
O'Prado Again      (Spendthrift, $5,000)
Awesome Patriot   (Spendthrift, $3,500)
Hero of Order       (Raut, $3,000)

Big Brown got his fourth stakes winner and first Graded stakes winner when Darwin won the The Minstrel Stakes-G3 at The Curragh in Ireland. Given his pedigree, I predicted that Brown would do well with Mr. Prospector-line mares, and in fact, all of these stakes winners are out of Mr. Prospector-line mares, by Silver Ghost, Gone For Real, Rubiano and K. O. Punch.

No one has asked my opinion yet, but I'll offer it anyhow. My favorite freshman sires this year are:
Kodiak Kowboy
Einstein (BRZ)

Pioneerof The Nile

Sea The Stars (IRE)

June 29, 2013, Centralinteligence ran away with the Triple Bend Handicap [G1] at Hollywood Park. Centralinteligence is a 5-year-old gelding by Smarty Jones out of Shootforthestars by Seattle Slew. He was bred by Smarty Jones's owner Pat Chapman, who was looking for mares to breed to Smarty Jones in the fall of 2006. We looked at Smarty's first yearlings that year and had been impressed with the colt out of the Seattle Slew mare Shootforthestars. I loved Smarty with Seattle Slew mares, and this one was offered at the 2006 Keeneland November Sale in foal to Elusive Quality (Smarty's sire), so this mare was among my recommendations for Mrs. Chapman to buy, which she did, for $450,000 and the rest is history.

Mrs. Chapman is also the breeder of Smarty Jones's 2012 stakes winner Res Judicata, a nice colt out of the homebred mare Mohonour, by Honour and Glory, a big, blaze faced mare who looks very much like her dam's sire Unbridled.

I'm so pleased for Pat, who is a genuinely nice person, who loves her horses, especially her Smarty. While it was disappointing to have him move out of Kentucky, it was nice that he could go home to Pennsylvania, where he now lives at Northview Pennsylvania, closer so Pat can visit more often.

Smarty Jones is one of the most undervalued sires in America. Check out his statistics, and be prepared to be surprised. According to The Blood-Horse Stallion Register, he has 21 stakes winners, 6% stakes winners to foals, which is excellent, with an AEI of 1.72. Go Smarty Go!

So Palace Malice surprised most of us (he was nearly 14-1 after all) and won the Belmont over Oxbow and Orb. The top 3 finishers were visibly leg weary coming down through the final yards, but there was a blue blur closing fast for fourth, my longshot pick Incognito. So what have we learned from this Triple Crown season? I think we discovered that this is a very contentious crop of 3-year-olds that won't sort itself out until later in the summer or fall. What we often find in years like this, when 3 different horses break up the Triple Crown between them, is that these are very strong crops, and not "mediocre" as they're often labeled at this stage by misbegotten racing/handicapping columnists who spend too much time deriding the sport and whining because horses aren't predictable enough for them to win a bet. The second half of the season is going to be a lot of fun, I promise.

It's also important to acknowledge Palace Malice's sire, Curlin, who now has 3 stakes winners from his first crop, including the new classic winner, as well as Countess Curlin and Stopshoppingdebbie. Their dams are by Royal Anthem (Palace Malice), Private Account (Countess Curlin) and Wild Again (Stopshoppingdebbie), so he's crossing with a wide range of bloodlines so far, and they're all outcrosses at 4 generations. An interesting factor with Palace Malice is that his second dam is inbred 3x4 to Damascus. There's been a remarkable tendency for horses with inbred second dams to perform at a high level, results Tom Young and I discovered when we wrote the article "The Good, The Bad, and The Inbred" for Pedigree Post back in 2001.

The big race is tomorrow so I thought I'd go on record with my predictions, since nobody took my advice when I got excited about Oxbow for the Preakness. I'm still backing Orb - he had Belmont written all over him even before the Derby. And I can't ignore the other Malibu Moon colt, Freedom Child, either. I still like Revolutionary, but am adding a controversial wild card, Incognito, who is the only horse in the race who is truly bred to win the Belmont, by A.P. Indy out of C.C.A. Oaks winner Octave. I know he's inexperienced, but I think he might hit the board.

While I hoped Orb would win the Preakness, I made sure to put a place and show bet on Oxbow after hearing Gary Stevens's comments on the colt after the Derby. Oxbow is interesting because he's by the grand sire Awesome Again and out of Tizamazing by Cee's Tizzy out of Cee's Song (so a full sister to Tiznow). This makes him a close relative of last year's good 3-year-old and G1 winner Paynter, also by Awesome Again out of Tizso, another full sister to Tiznow. And he's bred similarly to Ghostzapper, by Awesome Again out of Baby Zip, by Relaunch, who also sired Cee's Tizzy. So we know where the talent comes from. If only we could figure out where that weird roanish coloration comes from.

I picked Orb for the Kentucky Derby this year as one of the very few horses in the race with the pedigree that I felt confident could go the mile and a quarter distance. Fortunately, he proved even better than I could have imagined. I've always been a fan of Malibu Moon and the female family speaks for itself. Orb has stamped himself as the best stallion prospect available, by my estimation. What a king of a horse!

I was not only lucky enough to have a $2 bet on Princess of Sylmar to win the Kentucky Oaks (which she did at 38-1 odds!), but I have always been a big fan of her sire Majestic Warrior.  I tapped Majestic Warrior as a prime stallion prospect for a former employer after his maiden win at two, and he was one of my choices as Leading Freshman Sire last year, which he was by number of winners (30) and fourth by earnings.

I am excited to have scouted out the sires of this year's Kentucky Oaks winner (Majestic Warrior) and last year's Kentucky Derby winner (Flower Alley, sire of I'll Have Another).

I keep a regularly updated list of new stallions and roster changes that will help breeders for the upcoming season. One of my favorite racehorses becoming a new stallion is Union Rags, who I thought was the best 2-year-old of 2011, and was one of two horses I was rooting for to win the Kentucky Derby (the other was I'll Have Another). In the absence of I'll Have Another, I transferred loyalties to Union Rags for the Belmont, which of course, he won. 'Rags has the combination of precociousness and middle distance ability, as well as Grade A pedigree that I look for in a stallion prospect. New stallions in Kentucky include:
Union Rags               $35,000
Bodemeister             $30,000
To Honor and Serve$30,000
Americain                 $20,000
Shackleford              $20,000
Stay Thirsty             $20,000
Creative Cause        $15,000
Gemologist               $15,000
Tapizar                      $15,000
The Factor                $15,000
Hansen                     $12,500
Brilliant Speed         $10,000
Caleb's Posse           $10,000
Jersey Town             $10,000
Midas Touch (GB)   $10,000
Aikenite                    $ 7,500
Algorithms                $ 7,500
Astrology                  $ 7,500
Bullet Train (GB)     $ 7,500
Dialed In                   $ 7,500
Lentenor                   $ 7,500
Mythical Power        $ 7,500
Santiva                      $ 7,500
Maclean's Music     $ 6,500
Baryshnikov             $ 5,000
Country Day             $ 5,000
Get Stormy               $ 5,000
Stately Victor           $ 5,000

There are a good number of horses who have retired since last spring who have not yet found a farm to call home. Regional stallion managers should review this list to see who might be available.

I'll Have Another's stud fee in Japan
Big Red Farm's website now shows us a lovely (but small) conformation photo of Kentucky Derby/ Preakness hero I'll Have Another, and mention that his stud fee for 2013 will be 3,200,000 yen. That currently converts to just over US $40,000. That's not such a crazy stud fee for the kind of runner he was, but it's obvious from the lack of response he got from Kentucky stallion managers that I'll Have
Another could never have demanded that here next spring. His sire, Flower Alley, will undoubtedly have a stud fee bump up but how much is the question. He was trading for $15,000 after the Preakness and covered 132 mares by the end of the 2012 season compared to 79 mares in 2011. He has another talented 3-year-old colt in G2 winner Neck 'n Neck, so he's clearly not a one-horse sire, and at $20,000,
he easily fills his book next spring.


I couldn't be happier or more proud watching Flower Alley's son I'll Have Another run down the game Bodemeister to win the Preakness just like he won the Kentucky Derby two weeks before. This is a fantastic, gorgeous colt, and now he's hopefully headed to Belmont to finish his Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes. Have I mentioned lately that I'm a sucker for a chestnut horse with a star?

At my "going away party" at Three Chimneys Farm in the fall of 2010, Robert Clay asked what I was most proud of during my time there as Stallion Seasons and Matings Advisor. I didn't hesitate to answer "It's important to me that Flower Alley do well as a stallion," since I was the one pushing for the farm to get him as a stallion when others gave him the thumbs down.

Flower Alley was generally praised as the best-looking horse entering stud in Kentucky in 2007, but it took three long years of waiting to see what would come of that talent and those good looks. His first crop included the Graded stakes-winning fillies Lilacs And Lace and Bouquet Booth. His second crop includes Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another. In retrospect, it seems kind of a no-brainer that one of the best sons of the classic sire Distorted Humor (sire of Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer) should follow in his daddy's footsteps as a classic sire. I'm so proud of my boy Flower Alley!

Top 10 Leading Sires of 2011
Distorted Humor, Smart Strike, Tapit, Giant's Causeway, Malibu Moon, More Than Ready, Speightstown, Empire Maker, Medaglia d'Oro, and Kitten's Joy.

Compare their stud fees...More Than Ready, Speightstown and Kitten's Joy are over-achievers. Empire Maker is a loss for us, a gain for Japan.
Best Sire Combacks in 2011
Forestry, Include, Mineshaft, Northern Afleet, Roman Ruler
Kentucky Stud Fees
New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2025
New Stallions and Roster Changes for 2024
Freshman Sires
Stallion Registers and Stallion Season Auctions
"Small Victory" by Garnet Rogers. A lovely song every small breeder can relate to.
The premier reference site for Thoroughbred history
Donate to one of the most deserving horse charities I know.

Rising Broodmare Sires North American based - foaled after 1996; the youngest (first season 2006 or later) in bold face. I update this throughout the year as I find relevant statistics. It's been updated through the 2023 Kentucky November sales. Listed by # stakes winners
*this list has become difficult to maintain because EquineLine stats (via the Blood-Horse Stallion Register pages) for broodmare sires show all stakes winners, while The Blood-Horse Leading Broodmare Sires List and Keeneland catalog pages show only black type winners. As a result, this is not a complete or 100% accurate list.

Stallion (yr of birth/yr to stud)# Stakes winners
Giant's Causeway (1997/2001)207
More Than Ready (1997/2001)165
Street Cry (IRE) (1998/2003)149
Medaglia d'Oro (1999/2005)110
Tapit (2001/2005) 101
Bernardini (2003/2007)94
Fusaichi Pegasus (1997/2001)92
Bernstein (1997/2001) 89
Empire Maker (2000/2004)83
Malibu Moon (1997/2000)83
Lonhro (AUS) (1998/2004)70
Tiznow (1997/2002)69
Speightstown (1998/2005) 68
Johannesburg (1999/2003)66
Mineshaft (1999/2004)63
Dixie Union (1997/2001)60
Harlan's Holiday (1999/2004)56
Candy Ride (ARG) (1999/2005)54
Pure Prize (1998/2003)51
Ghostzapper (2000/2006)48
Kitten's Joy (2001/2006)47
Scat Daddy (2004/2008)47
Broken Vow (1997/2002)46
Hard Spun (2004/2008)45
Vindication (2000/2004) 45
Sky Mesa (2000/2004)44
War Front (2002/2007)42
Orientate (1998/2003)39
Proud Citizen (1999/2004)39
War Chant (1997/2001)39
Mizzen Mast (1998/2003)37
Put It Back (1998/2002)37
Street Sense (2004/2008)35
City Zip (1998/2002)32
El Corredor (1997/2002)29
Include (1997/2003) 29
Trippi (1997/2002) 29
Van Nistelrooy (2000/2004)29
Congrats (2000/2007) 28
Afleet Alex (2002/2006)27
Flatter (1999/2004) 27
Indygo Shiner (1998/2003)27
Point Given (1998/2002) 27
Curlin (2004/2009) 26
Exchange Rate (1997/2002)26
Officer (1999/2003)26
Henny Hughes (2003/2007)24
Jump Start (1999/2003)24
Lion Heart (2001/2005)24
Songandaprayer (1998/2002) 24
Macho Uno (1998/2004)23
Roman Ruler (2002/2006)23
Bluegrass Cat (2003/2007)22
High Yield (1997/2001)21
Uncle Mo (2008/2012)21
Blame (2006/2011) 20
Freud (1998/2002)20
Into Mischief (2005/2009)20
Discreet Cat (2003/2008)18
Tactical Cat (1996/2000) 18
Midnight Lute (2003/2009)17
Smarty Jones (2001/2005)17
Posse (2000/2004) 16
Any Given Saturday (2004/2008)15
Black Minnaloushe (1998/2002)15
Congaree (1998/2005)15
First Defence (2004/2009)15
First Samurai (2003/2007)15
Rock Hard Ten (2001/2006)15
Aptitude (1997/2002) 14
Birdstone (2001/2005) 14
Majestic Warrior (2005/2009)14
Pleasantly Perfect (1998/2005)14
Quality Road (2006/2011)14
Rockport Harbor (2002/2007)14
English Channel (2002/2008)13
Graeme Hall (1997/2003)13
Pioneerof The Nile (2006/2010)13
Aldebaran (1998/2004)12
Bellamy Road (2002/2007)12
Came Home (1999/2003)12
Eddington (2001/2006) 12
Majestic Warrior (2005/2009)12
Street Boss (2004/2009)12
Super Saver (2007/2011)12
Warrior's Reward (2006/2011)12
Whywhywhy (2000/2004)12
Yonaguska (1998/2003) 12
Cactus Ridge (2001/2004)11
Lookin At Lucky (2007/2011)11
Powerscourt (GB) (2000/2006)11
Yankee Gentleman (1999/2004)11
Big Brown (2005/2009)10
Consolidator (2002/2006) 10
Monarchos (1998/2002)10
Tiz Wonderful (2004/2009)10
Colonel John (2005/2010)10
Corinthian (2003/2008)9
D'Wildcat (1998/2004) 9
Kafwain (2000/2004) 9
Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) (2000/2006) 9
Perfect Soul (IRE) (1998/2005)9
Sharp Humor (2003/2007)9
Strong Hope (2000/2005)9
Wildcat Heir (2000/2006)9
Chief Seattle (1997/2001)8
Even The Score (1998/2005)8
Finality (1999/2004) 8
Najran (1999/2004) 8
Red Bullet (1997/2003)8
Toccet (2000/2005) 8
Twirling Candy (2007/2012)8
With Distinction (2001/2007)8
Badge of Silver (2000/2007)7
Cuvee (2001/2005)7
E Dubai (1998/2003)7
Forest Camp (1997/2002) 7
Friends Lake (2001/2005)7
Grand Reward (2001/2006)7
Henrythenavigator (2005/2009) 7
Kitalpha (1999/2003)7
Lawyer Ron (2003/2008)7
Milwaukee Brew (1997/2004)7
Pollard's Vision (2001/2006)7
Saint Liam (2000/2006)7
Sligo Bay (IRE) (1998/2004)7

Important Press Release:

October 27, 2010:


Robert N. Clay’s Three Chimneys Farm announced today that Stallion Seasons and Matings Specialist Anne Peters has decided to go out on her own as a pedigree consultant and writer.

Peters, one of the world’s leading authorities on Thoroughbred breeding and pedigrees, will return to providing her expertise as a freelance bloodstock advisor after five years at Three Chimneys.

“It’s time to go back out on my own again, as a consultant and writer. Besides bringing me back to Kentucky, one of the many things I’m grateful to Robert and Case Clay for is allowing and encouraging me to remain objective when recommending stallions to breeders, even if it meant suggesting a stallion at another farm,” said Peters. “We felt that it was important to give good all-around advice that helped mare owners make sound breeding decisions, rather than be totally self-serving. It’s better for the breeders and the horses, and so it’s better for the industry.”

Peters, known to many as “The Pedigree Goddess,” will provide articles of interest and a blog on her website and also looks forward to writing for various Thoroughbred publications.

“I miss writing about the breeding end of things and pedigree matters,” said Peters. “This will allow me the freedom to do that, without readers feeling that I’m biased toward any one farm or group of stallions.”

"Anne has been one of this farm's biggest assets over the past five years," said Case Clay, President of Three Chimneys. "She wasn't just an employee; she was and still is a trusted friend, and we plan to continue to seek out her opinion on a variety of matters."